Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Thomas Höllt  M. Umer Altaf  Kyle T. Mandli  Markus Hadwiger  Clint N. Dawson  Ibrahim Hoteit 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(1):317-336

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An Event-Based Verification Scheme for the Real-Time Flare Detection System at Kanzelhöhe Observatory     

W. Pötzi  A. M. Veronig  M. Temmer 《Solar physics》2018,293(6):94

In the framework of the Space Situational Awareness program of the European Space Agency (ESA/SSA), an automatic flare detection system was developed at Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO). The system has been in operation since mid-2013. The event detection algorithm was upgraded in September 2017. All data back to 2014 was reprocessed using the new algorithm. In order to evaluate both algorithms, we apply verification measures that are commonly used for forecast validation. In order to overcome the problem of rare events, which biases the verification measures, we introduce a new event-based method. We divide the timeline of the H\(\upalpha\) observations into positive events (flaring period) and negative events (quiet period), independent of the length of each event. In total, 329 positive and negative events were detected between 2014 and 2016. The hit rate for the new algorithm reached 96% (just five events were missed) and a false-alarm ratio of 17%. This is a significant improvement of the algorithm, as the original system had a hit rate of 85% and a false-alarm ratio of 33%. The true skill score and the Heidke skill score both reach values of 0.8 for the new algorithm; originally, they were at 0.5. The mean flare positions are accurate within \({\pm}\,1\) heliographic degree for both algorithms, and the peak times improve from a mean difference of \(1.7\pm 2.9~\mbox{minutes}\) to \(1.3\pm 2.3~\mbox{minutes}\). The flare start times that had been systematically late by about 3 minutes as determined by the original algorithm, now match the visual inspection within \(-0.47\pm 4.10~\mbox{minutes}\).  相似文献   

Hydrogeophysical modelling of Hisarcik (Kütahya) geothermal field,western Turkey     

Serkan Üner  Gülçin Özürlan Ağaçgözgü  Doğa Düşünür Doğan 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(8):2176-2195

Western Anatolia hosts many low-to-moderate and high-temperature geothermal sources in which active faults play a dominant role to control the recharge and the discharge of geothermal fluid. In this study, we used the two-dimensional geoelectric structure of Kütahya Hisarcık geothermal field, and created a conceptual hydrogeophysical model that includes faults, real topographical variations and geological units. The temperature distribution and fluid flow pattern are also investigated. The depth extension of Hisarcık Fault, electrical basement and low resistivity anomalies related to the presence of geothermal fluid are determined by using resistivity studies in the area. Numerical simulations suggest that Hisarcık fault functioning as a fluid conduit primarily enables hot fluid to be transported from depth to the surface. It is shown that the locations of predicted outflow vents coincide with those of hot springs in the area.  相似文献   

Statistical Properties of Ribbon Evolution and Reconnection Electric Fields in Eruptive and Confined Flares     

J. Hinterreiter  A. M. Veronig  J. K. Thalmann  J. Tschernitz  W. Pötzi 《Solar physics》2018,293(3):38

A statistical study of the chromospheric ribbon evolution in H\(\alpha\) two-ribbon flares was performed. The data set consists of 50 confined (62%) and eruptive (38%) flares that occurred from June 2000 to June 2015. The flares were selected homogeneously over the H\(\alpha\) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) classes, with an emphasis on including powerful confined flares and weak eruptive flares. H\(\alpha\) filtergrams from the Kanzelhöhe Observatory in combination with Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms were used to derive the ribbon separation, the ribbon-separation velocity, the magnetic-field strength, and the reconnection electric field. We find that eruptive flares reveal statistically larger ribbon separation and higher ribbon-separation velocities than confined flares. In addition, the ribbon separation of eruptive flares correlates with the GOES SXR flux, whereas no clear dependence was found for confined flares. The maximum ribbon-separation velocity is not correlated with the GOES flux, but eruptive flares reveal on average a higher ribbon-separation velocity (by ≈?10 km?s^?1). The local reconnection electric field of confined (\(cc=0.50 \pm0.02\)) and eruptive (\(cc=0.77 \pm0.03\)) flares correlates with the GOES flux, indicating that more powerful flares involve stronger reconnection electric fields. In addition, eruptive flares with higher electric-field strengths tend to be accompanied by faster coronal mass ejections.  相似文献   

Effects of deglaciation on the petrology and eruptive history of the Western Volcanic Zone,Iceland     

Deborah E. Eason  John M. Sinton  Karl Grönvold  Mark D. Kurz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(6):1-27

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Framing the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption from a farming-disaster perspective     

Sólveig Thorvaldsdóttir  Ragnar Sigbjörnsson 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):1619-1653

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Lagged response of nutrient leaching to reduced surpluses at the field and catchment scales          下载免费PDF全文

Barbro Ulén  Göran Johansson  Katarina Kyllmar  Lovisa Stjernman Forsberg  Gunnar Torstensson 《水文研究》2015,29(13):3020-3037

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An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions     

A. Bellucci  R. Haarsma  S. Gualdi  P. J. Athanasiadis  M. Caian  C. Cassou  E. Fernandez  A. Germe  J. Jungclaus  J. Kröger  D. Matei  W. Müller  H. Pohlmann  D. Salas y Melia  E. Sanchez  D. Smith  L. Terray  K. Wyser  S. Yang 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2787-2806

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The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model     

J. Baehr  K. Fröhlich  M. Botzet  D. I. V. Domeisen  L. Kornblueh  D. Notz  R. Piontek  H. Pohlmann  S. Tietsche  W. A. Müller 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2723-2735

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Diffusive mass exchange of non‐reactive substances in dual‐porosity porous systems – column experiments under saturated conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Bastian Knorr  Piotr Maloszewski  Florian Krämer  Christine Stumpp 《水文研究》2016,30(6):914-926

Diffusive mass exchange into immobile water regions within heterogeneous porous aquifers influences the fate of solutes. The percentage of immobile water is often unidentified in natural aquifers though. Hence, the mathematical prediction of solute transport in such heterogeneous aquifers remains challenging. The objective of this study was to find a simple analytical model approach that allows quantifying properties of mobile and immobile water regions and the portion of immobile water in a porous system. Therefore, the Single Fissure Dispersion Model (SFDM), which takes into account diffusive mass exchange between mobile and immobile water zones, was applied to model transport in well‐defined saturated dual‐porosity column experiments. Direct and indirect model validation was performed by running experiments at different flow velocities and using conservative tracer with different molecular diffusion coefficients. In another column setup, immobile water regions were randomly distributed to test the model applicability and to determine the portion of immobile water. In all setups, the tracer concentration curves showed differences in normalized maximum peak concentration, tailing and mass recovery according to their diffusion coefficients. These findings were more pronounced at lower flow rates (larger flow times) indicating the dependency of diffusive mass exchange into immobile water regions on tracers' molecular diffusion coefficients. The SFDM simulated all data with high model efficiency. Successful model validation supported the physical meaning of fitted model parameters. This study showed that the SFDM, developed for fissured aquifers, is applicable in porous media and can be used to determine porosity and volume of regions with immobile water. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献